1. Thursday March 4, 2010 (7:00am NY Time) UK
BOE Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
UK's BOE, Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is once
again scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and
the expectations are to keep both their official rates at 0.50% and
APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound (at least for
the time being). The important focus as usual today will be the
accompanying BOE Statement if they decide to release one.
Since last Parliament testimony by BOE officials, including Governor
Melvyn King, Sterling has been under pressure as the outlook of UK's
economy was grim to say the least. With Greece out of the European
nations casting spotlight on debt issues, UK's own debt is also
under scrutiny as we saw the heavy depreciation of the Sterling
since last rate decision back in Feb. 4.
If the BOE Statement focus on the same rhetoric of late, i.e. the
negative outlook on UK's economy, expect to see a sell-off of GBP
once again.
2. Thursday March 4, 2010 (7:45am NY Time) EU
ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to once again leave its
minimum bid rate at 1.00% or unchanged this month. The majority of
analysts agree to this sentiment as according to ECB, it is will
keep rates unchaged until 2011.
Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of
its member countries, especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy...
As a matter of fact, even with the Austerity Measures issued by
Greece yesterday, the risk of a sovereign default is still possible.
With the current market still showing a weaker EUR against the USD
as the current market unable to stay above the 1.3700 at the time of
writing this analysis, we could see another renewed sense of EUR
sell-offs later on today.
However, as ECB rate decisions are concerned, generally ECB is not
in the habit of surprising the market because any surprise on the
world's most traded currency pair (EUR/USD) would upset economy,
therefore I expected everything to be released as expected... The real
mover will be the press conference hosted at 8:30am (in 45 minutes)
by ECB Trichet, which may shed some new light over ECB's monetary
policy.
Of course, I suggest that we stick around during the release just in
case ECB decides to surprise the market, but most likely we won't
see much of a market volatility.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
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