forex for TODAY and TOMORROW

NEWS TRADING (By Henry Liu)
1. Friday February 5, 2010 (7:00am NY Time) CA
Employment Changes       Forecast 15.2K    Previous -2.6K
Unemployment Rate        Forecast 8.5%     Previous 8.5%
If the employment number is higher, we would SELL USD/CAD, and if
the employment number is lower, we would BUY USD/CAD.  This news
indicator measures the numbers of new jobs created during the
previous month, however in this case, we will see how many jobs were
actually lost, and less negative numbers mean better economy.
Our surprise factor will be at least 30K.  Historically, it has
moved the market by at least 50 pips if the surprise factor is hit
by at least 80% of the time.
2. Friday February 5, 2010 (8:30am NY Time) US
NonFarm Payroll         Forecast 10K      Previous -85K
Unemployment Rate       Forecast 10%      Previous 10%
We'll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K
with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last
NFP, you'd know that the last release disappointed the market and
kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after
a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December
release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. 
At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk
aversion mode.
With the forecast on NFP turning positive for the first time, we
could see a bullish sentiment on the USD as a result of market
psychology.  However, there are several things that we need to
consider for tomorrow's NFP release.
First of all, there is a possible increase in the total jobs count
as the Obama administration hired over 550K temporary workers for
the national census.  Should this number make in the January 2010
count, expect to see a blow out positive number in the NFP release
and a possible 1.0% decrease in the unemployment rate.
Secondly, the BLS or Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its
annual benchmark revision for the payrolls.  Expect to see a
significant downward revision on the first quarter of 2009, which
may offset the NFP release numbers all together if the revision is
significant.
Therefore, let's talk about how to trade this release: We'll wait
for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even
if we get our tradable figures (-60K or 80K).  We'll wait for a
possible revision to the previous release number, which is -85K, as
the market usually overreacts with the Revision and chances favor
for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases
between the revision and the actual release; then we will wait for
the Benchmark Revision... at this point, still stay out of the market.
Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is at
10.0%.  If the Unemployment Rate were to surprise higher, we'll have
to really make an executive decision at the time of the release and
see what is the primary focus of traders.  As long as we don't
surprise the 10.5%, I think the market will probably pay more
attention to the NFP release.  Of course if the census workers were
to be included in this release, then expect to have a much lower
than expected unemployment rate...
After all of the numbers have been released.  Wait for the market to
push... then be patient and wait for a decent retracement before
getting in.  Look for recent support/resistance areas for entry as a
high impact news with various components will usually be extremely
volatile, and those who are patient will always get a chance to
enter at much better entry.
DEFINITION
"Measures the change in number of employed people during the
previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has
a positive effect on the nation's currency. Job creation is an
important indicator of economic health because consumer spending,
which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large
portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates
to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises."