1. Thursday March 4, 2010 (7:00am NY Time) UK
BOE Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
UK's BOE, Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is once
again scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and
the expectations are to keep both their official rates at 0.50% and
APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound (at least for
the time being). The important focus as usual today will be the
accompanying BOE Statement if they decide to release one.
Since last Parliament testimony by BOE officials, including Governor
Melvyn King, Sterling has been under pressure as the outlook of UK's
economy was grim to say the least. With Greece out of the European
nations casting spotlight on debt issues, UK's own debt is also
under scrutiny as we saw the heavy depreciation of the Sterling
since last rate decision back in Feb. 4.
If the BOE Statement focus on the same rhetoric of late, i.e. the
negative outlook on UK's economy, expect to see a sell-off of GBP
once again.
2. Thursday March 4, 2010 (7:45am NY Time) EU
ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to once again leave its
minimum bid rate at 1.00% or unchanged this month. The majority of
analysts agree to this sentiment as according to ECB, it is will
keep rates unchaged until 2011.
Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of
its member countries, especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy...
As a matter of fact, even with the Austerity Measures issued by
Greece yesterday, the risk of a sovereign default is still possible.
With the current market still showing a weaker EUR against the USD
as the current market unable to stay above the 1.3700 at the time of
writing this analysis, we could see another renewed sense of EUR
sell-offs later on today.
However, as ECB rate decisions are concerned, generally ECB is not
in the habit of surprising the market because any surprise on the
world's most traded currency pair (EUR/USD) would upset economy,
therefore I expected everything to be released as expected... The real
mover will be the press conference hosted at 8:30am (in 45 minutes)
by ECB Trichet, which may shed some new light over ECB's monetary
policy.
Of course, I suggest that we stick around during the release just in
case ECB decides to surprise the market, but most likely we won't
see much of a market volatility.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Friday, February 5, 2010
forex for TODAY and TOMORROW
NEWS TRADING (By Henry Liu)
1. Friday February 5, 2010 (7:00am NY Time) CA
Employment Changes Forecast 15.2K Previous -2.6K
Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.5% Previous 8.5%
If the employment number is higher, we would SELL USD/CAD, and if
the employment number is lower, we would BUY USD/CAD. This news
indicator measures the numbers of new jobs created during the
previous month, however in this case, we will see how many jobs were
actually lost, and less negative numbers mean better economy.
Our surprise factor will be at least 30K. Historically, it has
moved the market by at least 50 pips if the surprise factor is hit
by at least 80% of the time.
2. Friday February 5, 2010 (8:30am NY Time) US
NonFarm Payroll Forecast 10K Previous -85K
Unemployment Rate Forecast 10% Previous 10%
We'll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K
with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last
NFP, you'd know that the last release disappointed the market and
kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after
a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December
release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery.
At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk
aversion mode.
With the forecast on NFP turning positive for the first time, we
could see a bullish sentiment on the USD as a result of market
psychology. However, there are several things that we need to
consider for tomorrow's NFP release.
First of all, there is a possible increase in the total jobs count
as the Obama administration hired over 550K temporary workers for
the national census. Should this number make in the January 2010
count, expect to see a blow out positive number in the NFP release
and a possible 1.0% decrease in the unemployment rate.
Secondly, the BLS or Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its
annual benchmark revision for the payrolls. Expect to see a
significant downward revision on the first quarter of 2009, which
may offset the NFP release numbers all together if the revision is
significant.
Therefore, let's talk about how to trade this release: We'll wait
for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even
if we get our tradable figures (-60K or 80K). We'll wait for a
possible revision to the previous release number, which is -85K, as
the market usually overreacts with the Revision and chances favor
for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases
between the revision and the actual release; then we will wait for
the Benchmark Revision... at this point, still stay out of the market.
Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is at
10.0%. If the Unemployment Rate were to surprise higher, we'll have
to really make an executive decision at the time of the release and
see what is the primary focus of traders. As long as we don't
surprise the 10.5%, I think the market will probably pay more
attention to the NFP release. Of course if the census workers were
to be included in this release, then expect to have a much lower
than expected unemployment rate...
After all of the numbers have been released. Wait for the market to
push... then be patient and wait for a decent retracement before
getting in. Look for recent support/resistance areas for entry as a
high impact news with various components will usually be extremely
volatile, and those who are patient will always get a chance to
enter at much better entry.
DEFINITION
"Measures the change in number of employed people during the
previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has
a positive effect on the nation's currency. Job creation is an
important indicator of economic health because consumer spending,
which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large
portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates
to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises."
1. Friday February 5, 2010 (7:00am NY Time) CA
Employment Changes Forecast 15.2K Previous -2.6K
Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.5% Previous 8.5%
If the employment number is higher, we would SELL USD/CAD, and if
the employment number is lower, we would BUY USD/CAD. This news
indicator measures the numbers of new jobs created during the
previous month, however in this case, we will see how many jobs were
actually lost, and less negative numbers mean better economy.
Our surprise factor will be at least 30K. Historically, it has
moved the market by at least 50 pips if the surprise factor is hit
by at least 80% of the time.
2. Friday February 5, 2010 (8:30am NY Time) US
NonFarm Payroll Forecast 10K Previous -85K
Unemployment Rate Forecast 10% Previous 10%
We'll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K
with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last
NFP, you'd know that the last release disappointed the market and
kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after
a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December
release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery.
At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk
aversion mode.
With the forecast on NFP turning positive for the first time, we
could see a bullish sentiment on the USD as a result of market
psychology. However, there are several things that we need to
consider for tomorrow's NFP release.
First of all, there is a possible increase in the total jobs count
as the Obama administration hired over 550K temporary workers for
the national census. Should this number make in the January 2010
count, expect to see a blow out positive number in the NFP release
and a possible 1.0% decrease in the unemployment rate.
Secondly, the BLS or Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its
annual benchmark revision for the payrolls. Expect to see a
significant downward revision on the first quarter of 2009, which
may offset the NFP release numbers all together if the revision is
significant.
Therefore, let's talk about how to trade this release: We'll wait
for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even
if we get our tradable figures (-60K or 80K). We'll wait for a
possible revision to the previous release number, which is -85K, as
the market usually overreacts with the Revision and chances favor
for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases
between the revision and the actual release; then we will wait for
the Benchmark Revision... at this point, still stay out of the market.
Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is at
10.0%. If the Unemployment Rate were to surprise higher, we'll have
to really make an executive decision at the time of the release and
see what is the primary focus of traders. As long as we don't
surprise the 10.5%, I think the market will probably pay more
attention to the NFP release. Of course if the census workers were
to be included in this release, then expect to have a much lower
than expected unemployment rate...
After all of the numbers have been released. Wait for the market to
push... then be patient and wait for a decent retracement before
getting in. Look for recent support/resistance areas for entry as a
high impact news with various components will usually be extremely
volatile, and those who are patient will always get a chance to
enter at much better entry.
DEFINITION
"Measures the change in number of employed people during the
previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has
a positive effect on the nation's currency. Job creation is an
important indicator of economic health because consumer spending,
which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large
portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates
to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises."
Monday, February 1, 2010
NEWS TRADING..MONDAY FOR FOREX
NEWS TRADING
Monday February 1, 2010
[4:30am NY Time]
UK Manufacturing PMI BUY 56.1 SELL 52.1 GBP/USD
Our focus for today will be on the Manufacturing PMI number from UK
and it's forecasted at 52.0; UK PMI's medium point is 50, therefore
this forecast is considered as a positive release (above the 50
level means expansion in the manufacturing sector).
We are looking for a tradable deviation of 2.0, and because this is
a leading indicator and its impact may affect the future trend of
this currency for the remainder of the week or even for the month of
February, market should react to this release with volatility should
we get out deviation. We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within
the hour if you deviation is hit.
Due to the risk adverse sentiment in the market and the general
strength of USD, I'd use extreme caution on the better than expected
release as GBP is still expected to depreciate against the USD in
the medium term... Take the context of the market into your trading
consideration.
DEFINITION:
"UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the
manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including
inventory, employment, orders, etc... A higher than 50 reading means
expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction."
[10:00am NY Time]
US ISM Manufacturing PMI BUY 58.0 SELL 53.0 USD/JPY
Our focus today is to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI during the New
York Trading session, and our tradable deviation for a safe trade is
2.5 points either way. In the event we get a better than expected
release, this could once again fuel the recent bullish rally of USD;
however, if the release is negative, below or close to the medium 50
level, we could see some correction in the recent rally of the
greenback... Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more
attention to this release for signs of market direction this month
and possibly trend change.
However, with the market still just starting this year, we'll have
to pay more attention to the premarket sentiment before jumping into
a trade. In the grand scheme of things, this release shouldn't
really affect the long-term trend of the USD should we get a
negative release, but in the case of a positive release, expect to
see further downward moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
DEFINITION
"The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index
measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the
Manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion.
A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To
produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of
subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier
deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely
because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early
access to data about their company's performance, which can be a
leading indicator of overall economic performance."
[10:30pm NY Time]
RBA Rate Decision BUY 4.25% SELL 3.75% AUD/USD
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is going to hike its official cash
rate once again to 4.00% as it is widely expected by the majority
economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters. Majority of
economists expected a pause in today's rate decision back in
December of 2009, and many of them had apparently jumped ship and
are now on the side of a rate hike... As a matter of fact, there are
rumors floating of a possible hike of 1/2 percent instead of the 1/4
percent forecasted...
Before we also jump on the bandwagon, remember the situation today
is no longer sunny skies with no clouds... It's more a foggy day with
low visibility, and all traders should use caution... On one hand RBA
is facing real inflationary pressure; but on the other hand, recent
equity market losses are unnerving... Should RBA decide to wait and
see, we could expect AUD to drop significantly against other
currencies, especially against USD.
RBA will also release a statement along with the rate decision.
I'll be watch closely and should there be any hint of a possible
pause, we should SELL AUD/USD immediately.
Monday February 1, 2010
[4:30am NY Time]
UK Manufacturing PMI BUY 56.1 SELL 52.1 GBP/USD
Our focus for today will be on the Manufacturing PMI number from UK
and it's forecasted at 52.0; UK PMI's medium point is 50, therefore
this forecast is considered as a positive release (above the 50
level means expansion in the manufacturing sector).
We are looking for a tradable deviation of 2.0, and because this is
a leading indicator and its impact may affect the future trend of
this currency for the remainder of the week or even for the month of
February, market should react to this release with volatility should
we get out deviation. We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within
the hour if you deviation is hit.
Due to the risk adverse sentiment in the market and the general
strength of USD, I'd use extreme caution on the better than expected
release as GBP is still expected to depreciate against the USD in
the medium term... Take the context of the market into your trading
consideration.
DEFINITION:
"UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the
manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including
inventory, employment, orders, etc... A higher than 50 reading means
expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction."
[10:00am NY Time]
US ISM Manufacturing PMI BUY 58.0 SELL 53.0 USD/JPY
Our focus today is to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI during the New
York Trading session, and our tradable deviation for a safe trade is
2.5 points either way. In the event we get a better than expected
release, this could once again fuel the recent bullish rally of USD;
however, if the release is negative, below or close to the medium 50
level, we could see some correction in the recent rally of the
greenback... Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more
attention to this release for signs of market direction this month
and possibly trend change.
However, with the market still just starting this year, we'll have
to pay more attention to the premarket sentiment before jumping into
a trade. In the grand scheme of things, this release shouldn't
really affect the long-term trend of the USD should we get a
negative release, but in the case of a positive release, expect to
see further downward moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
DEFINITION
"The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index
measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the
Manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion.
A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To
produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of
subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier
deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely
because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early
access to data about their company's performance, which can be a
leading indicator of overall economic performance."
[10:30pm NY Time]
RBA Rate Decision BUY 4.25% SELL 3.75% AUD/USD
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is going to hike its official cash
rate once again to 4.00% as it is widely expected by the majority
economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters. Majority of
economists expected a pause in today's rate decision back in
December of 2009, and many of them had apparently jumped ship and
are now on the side of a rate hike... As a matter of fact, there are
rumors floating of a possible hike of 1/2 percent instead of the 1/4
percent forecasted...
Before we also jump on the bandwagon, remember the situation today
is no longer sunny skies with no clouds... It's more a foggy day with
low visibility, and all traders should use caution... On one hand RBA
is facing real inflationary pressure; but on the other hand, recent
equity market losses are unnerving... Should RBA decide to wait and
see, we could expect AUD to drop significantly against other
currencies, especially against USD.
RBA will also release a statement along with the rate decision.
I'll be watch closely and should there be any hint of a possible
pause, we should SELL AUD/USD immediately.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
FOREX TIPS
Tuesday January 19, 2010 (4:45pm NY Time) NZ
NZ CPI q/q Forecast 0.0% Previous 1.3%
CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the
movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption
purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected
for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets
in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the
shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the
index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for
sampled periods from a sample of households(wikipedia). It is also
known as the "True Cost of Living".
Our surprise factor is 0.3%, if the CPI number (headline) increases
to a surprise at 0.3% then we will BUY of NZD/USD. If the CPI
number decreases to -0.3% or less, we'll SELL NZD/USD.
Historically, even at a different of 0.2% the market tends to
overreact. If it does hit our S. Factor, there is 80% of chance it
will move 40 pips.
NZ CPI q/q Forecast 0.0% Previous 1.3%
CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the
movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption
purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected
for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets
in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the
shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the
index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for
sampled periods from a sample of households(wikipedia). It is also
known as the "True Cost of Living".
Our surprise factor is 0.3%, if the CPI number (headline) increases
to a surprise at 0.3% then we will BUY of NZD/USD. If the CPI
number decreases to -0.3% or less, we'll SELL NZD/USD.
Historically, even at a different of 0.2% the market tends to
overreact. If it does hit our S. Factor, there is 80% of chance it
will move 40 pips.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
HAVE A LOOK..News from forex circles
We've got tons of untradable news today, although they do have the
potential of moving the market, but without a decent track record to
predict market reaction, it is best to stay out of the market
during the release times.
1. Tuesday November 24, 2009 (8:30am NY Time) US
Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 2.9% Previous 3.5%
We are looking for a 0.3% deviation on the expected 2.9%. Therefore
if we get a 3.2% on the Prelim 3rd quarter GDP, it would be
somewhat US Dollar positive and we will BUY USD/JPY. However, if
we get a 2.6% release or worse, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY or
USD/CHF.
Since this is the 2nd release, we do not expect much reaction and/or
deviation... most of the time market has already priced in the move
way before the release time.
potential of moving the market, but without a decent track record to
predict market reaction, it is best to stay out of the market
during the release times.
1. Tuesday November 24, 2009 (8:30am NY Time) US
Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 2.9% Previous 3.5%
We are looking for a 0.3% deviation on the expected 2.9%. Therefore
if we get a 3.2% on the Prelim 3rd quarter GDP, it would be
somewhat US Dollar positive and we will BUY USD/JPY. However, if
we get a 2.6% release or worse, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY or
USD/CHF.
Since this is the 2nd release, we do not expect much reaction and/or
deviation... most of the time market has already priced in the move
way before the release time.
FOREX TIPS.
8:30am US Prelim GDP q/q 2.9%(E) 3.5%(P) 0.3%(S) 50M
...and some untradable news releases
4:00am EU German Ifo Business Climate
4:45am UK Inflation Report Hearings
10:00am US CB Consumer Confidence
10:30am UK BOE Gov. King Speaks
2:00pm US FOMC Meeting Minutes
E = Expected
P = Previous
S = Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached
In the meantime, I would recommend that you try our trade room for
one session for Free. Our flahship proprietary Fibonacci GRID will
help you take advantage of the market in any condition, with or
without news! GOOD LUCK
...and some untradable news releases
4:00am EU German Ifo Business Climate
4:45am UK Inflation Report Hearings
10:00am US CB Consumer Confidence
10:30am UK BOE Gov. King Speaks
2:00pm US FOMC Meeting Minutes
E = Expected
P = Previous
S = Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached
In the meantime, I would recommend that you try our trade room for
one session for Free. Our flahship proprietary Fibonacci GRID will
help you take advantage of the market in any condition, with or
without news! GOOD LUCK
Monday, November 23, 2009
MAKE YOUR MONEY, NOW ! ! !
| EUR/USD | |||||||||||||
November 23, 2009 Current level-1.4975 EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.3523. Last week's test of 1.4796 support failed and this time a bottom has been confirmed at 1.4801, that should start the expected upmove for new highs beyond 1.5063. Intraday bias is positive for a break through 1.4990, en route to 1.5063 with an initial support at 1.4947. | |||||||||||||
| resistance | support | ||||||||||||
|
| ||||||||||||
USD/JPY
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)